crowd-funded "War for Cybertron" Unicron (2019 HasLab)

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October 1, 2019 (Tuesday)

Postby Dominic » Tue Oct 01, 2019 8:47 am

Where is this idea that Hasbro is "going to make it anyway" coming from?

The minimum buy-in is the minimum production run that Hasbro needs for a project to be worth doing. The buy-in is how Hasbro tests/confirms demand for the project. If Hasbro cannot convince 8,000 people to buy in, then it is not going to happen because they know that demand does not exist.

Reposting the link.
https://hasbropulse.com/collections/has ... on-unicron


A few days ago (9/29), JT recorded the buy-in at 5,749. On August 31 (the original deadline), buy-in was 5,600. This was an increase of ~150, or 5~6 per day. In the last 2 days, the buy-in has increased by another 150, or an average of ~10 per day.

I am wiling to admit that I was not expecting this. I had assumed that the surge in late August (~2,000 buyers) was most of the demand. Slow growth at the beginning of the month did little to change my thinking on this. But, an increase of 150 in 2 days makes me think that HasLab Unicron might be viable (if only by adding relatively strong numbers from on-line sellers).

Following this just got fun again.


Current buy-in: 6,799
Shortfall: 1,201
Time left: 5 days, 12 hours
Time since original deadline: 32 days
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Re: October 1, 2019 (Tuesday)

Postby Sparky Prime » Tue Oct 01, 2019 11:23 am

Dominic wrote: The buy-in is how Hasbro tests/confirms demand for the project. If Hasbro cannot convince 8,000 people to buy in, then it is not going to happen because they know that demand does not exist.

I wouldn't say this is how Hasbro would test demand for the project.... I mean, several of us have expressed how cool we think this Unicron is, but at the same time, that price tag is a bit much.
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Re: crowd-funded "War for Cybertron" Unicron (2019 HasLab)

Postby JediTricks » Tue Oct 01, 2019 1:08 pm

It's funny, the latest additions are such a wet fart, yet it seemed to do the trick to boost those numbers. More joints in the hands to do what with? A tiny Rodimus and he's not posed with the Matrix over his head? A tiny Autobot shuttle? A stand for his head? But it seems to have worked, and now it's going to come down to the wire.
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Thursday, October 3

Postby Dominic » Thu Oct 03, 2019 9:06 am

I wouldn't say this is how Hasbro would test demand for the project.... I mean, several of us have expressed how cool we think this Unicron is, but at the same time, that price tag is a bit much.


The whole point of crowd-funding is to fucking test demand. If the demand meets or exceeds a minimum level, then Hasbro (or any other company) produces an item to meet that confirmed demand.

"Demand" is people willing to buy an item. Their reasoning for buying (or not buying) is irrelevant. If somebody lacks the requisite combination of inclination and means, they do not count as "demand".


It's funny, the latest additions are such a wet fart, yet it seemed to do the trick to boost those numbers. More joints in the hands to do what with? A tiny Rodimus and he's not posed with the Matrix over his head? A tiny Autobot shuttle? A stand for his head? But it seems to have worked, and now it's going to come down to the wire.


How much to the announced changes track with the increase in buy-in?

Those changes are minimal, and probably should have been part of the initial offer. But, I am not sure they are the reason for the spike in buy-in. (Honestly, I am very skeptical that the added features you describe had much to do with it.)

It is possible that the people who needed more time needed most of the 5 additional weeks after the deadline. ($600 is a lot of pennies to save.)

The current buy-in is 7,027. 2 days ago, buy-in was 6,799. (It is unlikely that lackluster additions, like a badly posed micro-figure, would inspire 100+ people per day to make a big-ticket purchase they otherwise would have avoided.)

This really might happen.

If this was a political campaign, I would suggest drafting two speeches. The first would assume a narrow win, the second would assume a narrow loss.

Of course, this is not a political campaign.

In a political campaign, a narrow win would engage voters, and possibly entice a future opponent. The margin of victory could be attributed to a vigorous opponent running a hard campaign. The winning candidate would have a term (at least a year, likely 2+ years) to prove themselves.

In this case, there is no real opponent. It was a marketing campaign that consistently had trouble reaching/convincing its target audience to buy-in. The deadline was extended for 5+ weeks, and there is still question about if the campaign will succeed. And, even if it succeeds, what kind of margin will it have? Any success, particularly by a narrow margin, will need to be measured against the fact that the campaign was extended for 5+ weeks.

What lessons will Hasbro take from this?


-current buy-in: 7,027
-time left: 3 days, 12 hours
-current shortfall: 973
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Re: crowd-funded "War for Cybertron" Unicron (2019 HasLab)

Postby JediTricks » Thu Oct 03, 2019 10:40 am

I don't know how it didn't occur to me that they extended the date 36 days specifically to get the NYCC people interested, but... DUH! Maybe this is a lesson for Hasbro not to just throw something out there and hope for the best, but to actually plan.
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Re: crowd-funded "War for Cybertron" Unicron (2019 HasLab)

Postby Dominic » Thu Oct 03, 2019 11:18 am

I am not sure that New York Comic Con is going to help much.

When they showed Unicron at shows earlier in the year, interest actually declined. (Showing the prototype at shows let people see, and photograph, the flaws up close.)

More importantly, NYCC is this weekend, over-lapping with the deadline. There is going to be plenty of competition for the $600 that Unicron will cost, even if Hasbro's booth is set up to take orders on the spot.
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Re: Thursday, October 3

Postby Sparky Prime » Thu Oct 03, 2019 11:38 am

Dominic wrote:The whole point of crowd-funding is to fucking test demand.

No, the whole point of crowd-funding is to get masses from the public to help fund the project so that the creators don't have to foot-the-bill (entirely) themselves.

If the demand meets or exceeds a minimum level, then Hasbro (or any other company) produces an item to meet that confirmed demand.

"Demand" is people willing to buy an item. Their reasoning for buying (or not buying) is irrelevant. If somebody lacks the requisite combination of inclination and means, they do not count as "demand".

This isn't simply "people willing to buy an item", this is people willing to help fund production of the item in the first place. It doesn't necessarily reflect the demand for it at all. Take "Mighty No. 9" for an example. There was a HUGE interest in the game during its kickstarter campaign, mainly for being Keiji Inafune's attempts to make a Mega Man game after leaving Capcom. Only, upon release, the actual game was largely seen as a disappointment.
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Re: crowd-funded "War for Cybertron" Unicron (2019 HasLab)

Postby Shockwave » Thu Oct 03, 2019 12:15 pm

Crowdfunding is both. It helps a company gauge demand and to raise money. Mattel used the crowdfunding model for Castle Grayskull back on the late 2000's to both determine demand and to raise money. Super 7 is currently doing that with Snake Mountain. And, between Unicron and Snake Mountain, I know which one I would choose and it's not Unicron.
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Re: crowd-funded "War for Cybertron" Unicron (2019 HasLab)

Postby Sparky Prime » Thu Oct 03, 2019 1:32 pm

Shockwave wrote:Crowdfunding is both. It helps a company gauge demand and to raise money.

Oh, don't get me wrong, I'm not saying it can't be used to help gauge demand for a product, to an extent, I'm just saying it's really not a good method to test for demand (and certainly isn't the "whole point" of crowdfunding, which I'd have to say is still ultimately to get the project funded). As I've pointed out, interest in the crowdfunding efforts can vary from the demand for the final product. To use another video game as an example, "Hollow Knight" started as a kickstarter which was funded by only 2,158 backers for a total of AU$57,138 ("Mighty No. 9" as a point for a comparison had 67,226 backers getting a total of $3,845,170). Originally, Hollow Knight was only slated for release on Steam, but it turned out to be so popular upon release that it eventually was put onto every major console as well, with the actual demand for the game well outpacing the interest in the original crowdfunding effort.
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Friday November 4

Postby Dominic » Fri Oct 04, 2019 1:53 pm

.....Demand is a practical measure. For the purpose of any crowd-finding project, "demand" is a measure of who is actually going to buy the item being funded. People who think it is cool do not matter if they do not have, or are not going to cough up, the damned money. Crowdfunding offers a quick way to assess demand, and meet that demand if there is enough to justify the project.

The willingness to fund the item is a measurement of who is willing to spend money on it.



-----------------

Fact: Current buy-in for HaslLab Unicron is 7,340
Fact: Current shortfall is 660.
Fact: The buy-in has increased by over 300 in the last 24 hours.
Fact: The original deadline for this project was 34 days ago.
Fact: Order numbers from online retailers have not yet been recorded.

Projection: Unicron has a realistic chance of being funded.
-----------------
Without the faux-Shockwave writing.


Current buy in: 7,340
Time since original deadline: 34 days
Time left: 2 days, 7 hours
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