crowd-funded "War for Cybertron" Unicron (2019 HasLab)

The IDW Comics universe has had such a different take on G1, one that's now significantly represented by the Generations toys, so they share a forum. A modern take on a Real Cybertronian Hero. Currently starring Generations toys, IDW "The Transformers" comics, MTMTE, TF vs GI Joe, and Windblade.

Monday 8/26

Postby Dominic » Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:13 pm

-edit: while I was typing this, the buy-in visibly increased. The increase is not enough to change my predictions. But, it merits revision to this post.

Current numbers:

The current buy-in is ~3160, an increast of ~100 from yesterday and significantly higher than I expected.

For the last few weeks, daily buy-in has hovered around or below 50. ~100 is still less than needed by any of the metrics I have been using. But, it is less of a deficit than previous. And, there are some ambiguating factors, listed below.


How many people can really commit to a $500 dollar figure? But it wouldn't surprise me if they made it anyway.


Is it the amount as a hard number? Is it the amount in one purchase? Or, is it just not worth it?

I easily spend a comparable amount on comics per year. (I am trying not to think too much about that.) But, if I had to make pay the yearly (or even quarterly) total at once, I might think twice or even thrice before buying in.

There are collectors who easily spend more than ~$600 on their toy collections every year. Look at some of the collection pictures that people have on other forums. People have the money. But, $600 is probably a big chunk of the hobby budget.

I remain skeptical that Hasbro is going to squint and say "close enough" about the buy-in. They set the bar at 8,000 for a reason.

But, of course....

It is interesting to note that about a month ago Unicron went up for pre-order on TakaraTomy's Mall site, listed as $75,600 Yen, which would be about $696.05 -- $121.06 more than Hasbro is asking for in the crowdfunding. The listing does say "Hasbro's crowdfunding “HAS Lab” project “Unicron” will be accepted at Takara Tomy Mall in Japan!", which makes me wonder if their numbers are reflected on the HasLab website's totals or not.


That is a significant factor that I have admittedly failed to account for.

There are some reports that including Takara's numbers places the buy-in at 4,500+, well over 1K more (in less time than the HasLab posting has been up).

The question (that we simply cannot know the answer to) is if Hasbro's 8,000 limit intended to count global demand, or was intended only to measure domestic demand.

There are also reports that the HasLab number (linked below) is not counting pre-orders from on-line sellers.

BBTS has a mark-up of ~$200. That cannot possibly make HasLab Unicron more palatable. But, ordering through BBTS might make this more accessible for some people.
https://www.bigbadtoystore.com/Product/ ... ails/97919


This suddenly got exciting again.


-reposting link:
https://hasbropulse.com/collections/has ... on-unicron
-----------------
Current numbers: (Monday 8/26)

(Based on HasbroPulse.)

-current buy-in: 3160
-needed surge: ~3,850
User avatar
Dominic
Supreme-Class
 
Posts: 9017
Joined: Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:55 pm
Location: Boston

Re: Monday 8/26

Postby andersonh1 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:44 am

Dominic wrote:
How many people can really commit to a $500 dollar figure? But it wouldn't surprise me if they made it anyway.


Is it the amount as a hard number? Is it the amount in one purchase? Or, is it just not worth it?


All of the above, I would say. I'm sure I spend more than $500 on hobbies in any given year, but spending it a bit here and a bit there as part of my larger budget and expense-paying process is a good thing. We all work hard and it's healthy to play a bit with some of your income, in my opinion. But there's a limit.

I just had to spend $500 on air conditioning repairs. That hurt, but at least it was a legitimate repair expense that benefited the entire family. I can't imagine spending that same amount on an action figure that would be just for me and sit collecting dust most of the time. It would just feel irresponsible of me when there are genuine expenses that type of money needs to be saved for. Everyone's priorities and expenses are different, I understand, so not everyone's going to make the same calculation that I do.
User avatar
andersonh1
Moderator
 
Posts: 5253
Joined: Fri Jul 18, 2008 3:22 pm
Location: South Carolina

Re: crowd-funded "War for Cybertron" Unicron (2019 HasLab)

Postby Dominic » Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:28 pm

I checked Hasbro Pulse.

Unicron broke 5K at some point this afternoon.

Not sure if that is counting Takara's numbers. But, my projections are gone.


This just got interesting again.
User avatar
Dominic
Supreme-Class
 
Posts: 9017
Joined: Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:55 pm
Location: Boston

Re: crowd-funded "War for Cybertron" Unicron (2019 HasLab)

Postby JediTricks » Wed Aug 28, 2019 9:36 am

Takara's numbers aren't supposed to come in until the last day of the campaign, same with Hasbro Australia's. I find this surge very sketchy, although it was enough to get a friend of mine to actually back the damned thing once it looked more hopeful. The numbers simply aren't going up steadily enough to account for the 2000 backers over 3 days magically appearing, especially with such limited additions being posted every day in the news. Something similar happened with the Sail Barge last year as well, the rumors were all over the place about PayPal buyer issues and foreign websites allowed to order, but they weren't nearly as big a push as this has been. With those kinds of results, I cannot begin to guess if this will actually fund now, but it seems like it will through sheer realms of magic.
Image
See, that one's a camcorder, that one's a camera, that one's a phone, and they're doing "Speak no evil, See no evil, Hear no evil", get it?
User avatar
JediTricks
Site Admin
 
Posts: 3683
Joined: Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:17 pm
Location: LA, CA, USA

Re: crowd-funded "War for Cybertron" Unicron (2019 HasLab)

Postby Dominic » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:33 am

I was assuming that today would be the day that HasLab Unicron became mathematically impossible (needing a surge of over 4,000 on the last day).

This could be the start of the last minute surge. In that last two days, the number has jumped by nearly 2,000. If this had happend on Friday, I would dismiss it. But, Unicron broke the 5K mark sometime on Tuesday.

Online sellers may be shipping Unicron to over-seas buyers. But, the orders that the online sellers send to Hasbro are going to be counted as domestic demand (as the sellers are American "buyers"). They might be enough to push this over.


At this point, I am discarding my old projections, and am simply intrigued by what happens next.
User avatar
Dominic
Supreme-Class
 
Posts: 9017
Joined: Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:55 pm
Location: Boston

Re: crowd-funded "War for Cybertron" Unicron (2019 HasLab)

Postby Dominic » Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:35 am

As of now, the current buy-in number is 5,370.

Because we may be in the "surge-window" for this campaign, there is little point in doing further calculation.

The single biggest variable will be the on-line sellers (such as BigBadToyStore) submitting their orders in the next 48 hours. Beyond that, there may be a few more people submitting orders when they are paid tomorrow.

If the spike earlier this week (nearly 2K between Sunday to Tuesday) was the surge, then I am skeptical that Unicron will be funded. But, if there is another spike (along with the on-line seller numbers), it could happen.


(I am having too much fun with this.)
User avatar
Dominic
Supreme-Class
 
Posts: 9017
Joined: Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:55 pm
Location: Boston

Re: crowd-funded "War for Cybertron" Unicron (2019 HasLab)

Postby JediTricks » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:37 am

I would love to see the behind-the-scenes data on that surge and why it's not carrying through now.
Image
See, that one's a camcorder, that one's a camera, that one's a phone, and they're doing "Speak no evil, See no evil, Hear no evil", get it?
User avatar
JediTricks
Site Admin
 
Posts: 3683
Joined: Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:17 pm
Location: LA, CA, USA

Re: crowd-funded "War for Cybertron" Unicron (2019 HasLab)

Postby Dominic » Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:41 am

What is the over/under of that data being released?



*edit: HasLab Unicron deadline has been extended to early October.

https://hasbropulse.com/collections/has ... on-unicron


Hasbro's stated reason is that some collectors have said they need more time to come up with the money.

The extended time-line will make the difference, assuming that time is the obstacle for enough people. If we assume the previous growth rate (including this week's mini-surge) remains consistent, Unicron will happen.


I do not have time to do the precise modelling and math now. Are there any good models for this scenario?
User avatar
Dominic
Supreme-Class
 
Posts: 9017
Joined: Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:55 pm
Location: Boston

Re: crowd-funded "War for Cybertron" Unicron (2019 HasLab)

Postby JediTricks » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:49 am

I saw the email while I was driving after posting on this and laughed my ass off. This is nuts. If they're going to add to the tally tonight when Japan and Australia fund, then it's going to jump up but I'm guessing they already know it's not enough to get them past the threshold and they need that feather in their cap. My guess is they were looking at 1000 short. A month and a half isn't a good window for the FOMO (fear of missing out) crowd though, deflates the urgency.

There are no models for this, as I've never seen a crowdfunded item do exactly this before. This campaign is going to run into serious paypal problems though.
Image
See, that one's a camcorder, that one's a camera, that one's a phone, and they're doing "Speak no evil, See no evil, Hear no evil", get it?
User avatar
JediTricks
Site Admin
 
Posts: 3683
Joined: Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:17 pm
Location: LA, CA, USA

Re: crowd-funded "War for Cybertron" Unicron (2019 HasLab)

Postby Dominic » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:59 pm

As of today (August 30), the buy-in is ~5,560, up ~200 from yesterday.

We could keep using last year's sail-barge campaign as the model. But, I do not think it really applies. I would anticipate a late surge of 1,000~1500 (just under what we saw this past week). But, that is largely guess work.

Still, it will be fun to watch, regardless of the results.
User avatar
Dominic
Supreme-Class
 
Posts: 9017
Joined: Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:55 pm
Location: Boston

PreviousNext

Return to IDW Comics / Generations | Universe | Classics

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests

cron