crowd-funded "War for Cybertron" Unicron (2019 HasLab)

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Re: proposed "War for Cybertron" Unicron (2019, Hasbro Pulse

Postby Dominic » Tue Jul 23, 2019 9:57 am

As of now, the buy-in counter is just over 1,780 (~80 more than yesterday).

The best way to measure this now is to calculate what kind of "surge" would cover this sort of deficit on the last day.

Assume that the last day (August 31) has a base-requirement of 155 (more or less the average increase needed per day to make this project viable). Assume that today is short by ~70. The last day buy-in needs to be ~225. This is not impossible.

For the sake of on projections, I am using what JT said about the "Star Wars" sail barge, the nearest (albeit imperfect) precedent that we have to model this on. In that case, the last minute "surge" doubled the previously confirmed buy-ins, making the sale barge viable. (Note: that was a cheaper toy in a better known line, needing fewer people to buy-in. If somebody wants to refine this projection, let me know.)

For our purposes, if the last minute surge needs to account for more than half of the needed buy-in (just over 6,200 at this point), we can assume that Unicron is not going to happen.
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Re: proposed "War for Cybertron" Unicron (2019, Hasbro Pulse

Postby Shockwave » Tue Jul 23, 2019 11:31 am

I'm pretty sure it'll happen either way. I find it hard to believe (although not impossible) that they would spend all that time, money and resources on developing it and revealing the prototype just to not do it at all. I think the most that would happen is they would still produce it but at a much higher price than if it gets fully funded. Then there's likely going to be some sort of Japanese release as well. Maybe, I dunno. We've never seen hasbro take this kind of approach so who knows? Also, As JT pointed out, we really can't predict this on any sort of steady numbers. We just found out about this and I'm guessing that the only ones who have backed are people that actually already have the $600 available now. I'm sure that are probably a lot more that are going to need time to come up with it (either through selling parts of their own collection or other money raising efforts) and will back it later. I suspect numbers will climb as time goes on and people who want it will have found ways to raise the money. Heck, I'd do it if the funding was going to be available, but there's just now I'd be able to afford it, even if I sold parts of my collection.
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Re: proposed "War for Cybertron" Unicron (2019, Hasbro Pulse

Postby Dominic » Wed Jul 24, 2019 9:40 am

I have to disagree. And, the numbers support me.

After two days, the buy-in has increased by less than the average needed for a single day.

The current number is ~1,830 buy-in. That is only ~50 more than about this time yesterday. That increases the needed "surge" by ~100, for a total of ~330 on the last day. (I rounded up. But, my estimates assume a daily average of >150 buy-ins per day. If somebody wants to do more precise math, be my guest.)


I have been informally looking at forums, just to get a sense of what people are thinking saying. (Normally, fan forums are not the best measure of zeitgeist. But, in this case, forum members are going to over-lap significantly with the market for a project like this.) Putting aside, money, there is a lack of enthusiasm among fans.

Some people have actually said that they already have a Unicron (one of the several that has been released over the last ~15 years). This reflects part of what JT said previously about the "Star Wars" sail barge project last year (the nearest model that we have).

The sail barge was ~20% cheaper and had a lower buy-in threshold, despite having a larger fan-base for a more unique product. And, as JT said, the sail barge seemed to be non-viable until a last minute surge that almost doubled the previous buy-in.

As stated above, the sail barge is a poor model (being far too optimistic) for the Unicron project. But, it is the best one that we have.

Refined projection:
The minimum buy-in for the HasLab Unicron is 8,000. If we use JT's description of last year's "Star Wars" sail barge as a model, a last minute surge of ~4,000 buyers could make HasLab Unicron viable. The needed "surge" cannot exceed ~4,000.

Yesterday's shortfall was ~70 fewer buyers than needed.
Today's shortfall is ~100 fewer buyers than needed.
If the average shortfall is consistently by more than ~130 buyers, the needed surge could exceed 4,000 by the end of August.

Assume that people are currently preparing to pay monthly bills, there would likely be a spike by the end of the first full week of August (ending the 11th). The end of that first full week in August is the week to watch.


If this was a political campaign, I would not be projecting defeat. But, I would not be unduly optimistic.
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Re: proposed "War for Cybertron" Unicron (2019, Hasbro Pulse

Postby Dominic » Thu Jul 25, 2019 11:37 am

Reposting the link to HasbroPulse:
https://hasbropulse.com/collections/has ... on-unicron

Current buy-in (Thursday, July 25)):
*1,900*

That is +70 from yesterday's number. The day before saw an increase of 50 buyers.

The current needed "surge" for the last day is ~420. (Place 420 joke here:_________________________________)


If we assume a last-day surge of ~4,000, roughly half of the needed buy-in, then this might squeak in if there is an average increase of 70~80 buyers. A solid bump this weekend could balance out the weak increase from Tuesday to Wednesday.

But, the real first test will be the end of the first week of August.

(This is a nail-biter.)
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Re: proposed "War for Cybertron" Unicron (2019, Hasbro Pulse

Postby Dominic » Mon Jul 29, 2019 11:16 am

Rather than tracking this day by day, I figure checking in once or twice a week is good enough.


Today's count is....whuh oh....

When I last checked, Thursday (July 25), the buy-in was exactly 1,900. This was hardly encouraging, but not fatal.

The current number is 2,054, in increase of just over 150.

This is about the needed average daily increase that the HasLab Unicron would need to be viable. Unfortunately, this is the increase for 4 days, not 1. Even if we assume a last minute surge covering ~half the needed buy-in, the last 4 days have only covered ~half of the needed average buy-in.

The average buy-in since Thursday is <40, meaning that there is a average deficit of >100 per day. Total deficit, since Thursday (July 29) is ~450, which more than doubles the last-day "surge" needed to make HasLab Unicron viable (from ~420, to ~870). By the most optimistic projections, the last-minute "surge" will only cover about half of the needed buy-in. The minute that the needed "surge" goes above 4,000, we can assume that HasLab Unicron will not happen.

Assuming an average increase of 150+ buyers per day, the total should be over 2,500 buyers as of today. If we assume a last minute surge covering roughly half of the needed buy-in, the current total should still be ~2,250.

This is not impossible to recover from. (I am not willing to declare the HasLab Unicron dead until after the weekend of August 10-11). But, in the space of 4 days, the HasLab Unicron has deteriorated from credible (if hardly guaranteed) to unlikely (if not impossible).

If this was a political campaign, I would be having a hard conversation with the candidate and other members of the team. I would not necessarily give up. But, I would spend more time drafting a concession speech than planning a victory party.

---------------------------------------------

Current number: ~2,000
Needed last-day surge: ~870

(I do not have a practical interest in this. But, tracking the numbers has been fun.)

------------------------------------------------
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Re: proposed "War for Cybertron" Unicron (2019, Hasbro Pulse

Postby Dominic » Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:13 pm

I said that I would not make any serious call on this until the 12th, and I meant it.

But....

The current buy-in is just over 2,100 (2,110 to be precise).

The previous buy-in was ~2,050, 3 days ago. That works out to ~20 buy-ins per day, for an average daily deficit of ~125 (if we skew the numbers very favorably). Multiplying that number by 3 (days) yields a total deficit of ~370 (skewing the estimate in an optimistic direction).

Adding the recent deficit to the previously recorded "surge" needed for the last day results in a new "surge" number of......(funeral dirge please).......over 1,200.

*I have been assuming that daily buy-ins need to average out to 150+ per day. If we assume a last day "surge" that covers roughly half the needed buy-in, then the average daily increase needs to be 75~80.

However, even assuming a lower daily average of ~75 (using the most optimistic number), the daily deficit would be ~50, more than double the average daily increase.


As of now, the HasLab Unicron project has 30 days to lure in 8,000 committed buyers. As of now, reaching 8,000 would require nearly 6,000 more buyers to commit.

6,000/30 = 200.
buyers/remaining days = needed buyers per day

When I first did this calculation, about 2 weeks ago, the needed daily buy-in was a little over 150. Now, with less time, the needed daily buy-in has increased by ~1/3, while the clock has less time on it.

For the sake of consistency, I am going to use my previous calculations (assuming a necessary daily buy-in of ~150). But, in real terms, the prospects for the HasLab Unicron being funded have gotten worse.

If I were on a political campaign that was going this poorly in late August or early September, I would be drafting a concession speech, and giving serious thought to suspending the campaign. At this point, it may not be a question of the marketing or the strategy failing. It may simply be unwinnable.

-----------------------------
Current numbers: (Thursday, August 1)

- committed buyers: ~2100
- necessary "surge": ~1240

-------------------------------
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Re: proposed "War for Cybertron" Unicron (2019, Hasbro Pulse

Postby Shockwave » Thu Aug 01, 2019 4:28 pm

So, it's been up for ~two weeks and in that time they've got 2100 backers. If that remains consistent with the next four weeks that would add another 4200 which would put it at 6300. That would be a shortfall of 1700. If there is that much of a push at the last minute, Unicron could happen. I also think there's a possibility that they might not meet the number but come close enough to decide to do it anyway.
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Re: proposed "War for Cybertron" Unicron (2019, Hasbro Pulse

Postby Dominic » Mon Aug 05, 2019 11:56 am

Reposting the HasbroPulse Unicron link:
https://hasbropulse.com/collections/has ... on-unicron


So, it's been up for ~two weeks and in that time they've got 2100 backers. If that remains consistent with the next four weeks that would add another 4200 which would put it at 6300. That would be a shortfall of 1700. If there is that much of a push at the last minute, Unicron could happen. I also think there's a possibility that they might not meet the number but come close enough to decide to do it anyway.


Oh, hell no.

The "2,100 backers" includes an early surge of ~1000. Almost half of the number you site (and the current number) consists of the initial buy-in. An average of ~1,000 buyers per week over a relatively short window (of two months) would require a daily buy-in that matches what we have been seeing for the last week.

This thread started 3 weeks ago. The biggest spike in buy-in was ~1000, between July 15 and 17. Since then, the daily buy-ins have trended downward. By July 19th, the average daily buy-in was ~240, less than half of what it had previous been.

Your very optimistic numbers (assuming an average weekly buy-in of ~1000 per week) still leave a short-fall of over 1,500, which is more than the support the HasLab Unicron had during the initial surge (before people started noticing problems like the backpack and leg-kibble).

I just checked the numbers (listed below). The current needed surge is ~1700, which is the shortfall that your optimistic projects are assuming, and there are still 3+ weeks of time for that shortfall to increase. Even if we assume a last minute surge of 1,700, adding that to the current number (~2,230) is still less than half of the needed buy-in. This would not be so ominous, but we are nearly half-way through the time that HasLab has allowed for funding.

-----------------------

The current number is ~2,230, up from ~2100 on August 1. This is an increase of ~130, which is far less than the needed average buy-in for a single day. Even if we assume a (highly improbable) last minute surge of ~4,000, the 1,300 would only cover half of the needed buy-in for 4 days.

130/4 = ~33
(increase since August 1)/(4 days) = average daily increase

~150 - ~33 = ~115
(required daily increase) - (real daily increase) = daily shortfall

~115 * 4 = ~460
(daily shortfall) * (number of days) = (shortfall since August 1)

~460 + ~1240 = ~1700
(shortfall since August 1) + (previous needed surge) = (new required surge)
----------------------------------

Current numbers (Monday August 5)
-committed buyers: ~2,230
-necessary "surge" for August 31: ~1,700

-----------------------------------

If HasLab Unicron cannot break the 3,200 mark by early next week, I am going to call this a loss. (3,200 is a modest goal that does not guarantee HasLab Unicron being produced.)
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Re: proposed "War for Cybertron" Unicron (2019, Hasbro Pulse

Postby Dominic » Fri Aug 09, 2019 12:36 pm

Reposting the Hasbro Pulse link for easy reference:
https://hasbropulse.com/collections/has ... on-unicron


Today's numbers.....more ominous than seeing Unicron descending on Lithone at the beginning of the 1986 movie.

Current number: ~2360

That is an increase of ~130 (actually a bit less) over the past 4 days. In other words, over the course of 4 days, there has been an increase of less than the average needed increase for one day. That increases the shortfall by ~450 (actually a little higher).

About 2 weeks ago, I said that there would need to be a micro-surge after the first full week of August in order for the crowd-funded Unicron to be viable. And, I stand by that. If buy-in exceeds 3,000 by Monday, I will admit that Unicron might be viable. If not, then I will call it by Monday.

The needed surge in increasing faster than the number of committed buyers. 2 weeks ago, the needed surge was less than half of the then-recorded committed buyers (870,2000+). Now, the committed buyers out-weigh the needed surge by just over 200, making them about equal.

Technically, the model we are using (last year's "Star Wars" sailbarge) requires us to wait for the moment when the necessary "last minute surge" is more than 4,000. But, it does not look like that (overly optimistic) model is going to apply here.


---------------------------------------
Numbers for August 9 (Friday)

Total number: <2360
Needed surge (on August 31): ~2150
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Re: proposed "War for Cybertron" Unicron (2019, Hasbro Pulse

Postby Dominic » Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:39 am

And, the current numbers are......worse than I was expecting. (I figured it would at least break 2.5K buyers.)

Last Friday, the total buy-in was ~2360.

Current buy-in number: ~2430. This is an increase of ~70 over the course of two days.

A few weeks ago, said that the weekend of August 10/11 would be a good barometer of how viable HasLab Unicron is. And, I stand by that. But, these numbers are actually worse than I expected. At the very least, I was expecting the number of buyers to break 2.5K, maybe flirt with 2,800.

Last Friday, the needed last day surge was ~2150. Adding the previous weekend's deficit (~260) results in a new surge number of ~2410.

While these are rough estimates, the current buy-in (2430) is barely above the needed surge (2410). The model that we have been using assumes that HasLab Unicron could be saved by a last minute surge of no more than 4,000.

For the last two weeks, the surge number (essentially a negative metric) has consistently increased more quickly than the buy-in number. If that trend continues to any measurable degree, the needed surge will be higher than the buy-in number by mid-week. (As it stands now, the buy-in is ~1% more than the needed surge.)

Other metrics to consider:
HasLab Unicron was announced ~ 4 weeks ago, and (as of August 12) has ~3 weeks left.

2430/4 = ~608
(buy-in)/(weeks since launch) = (average weekly buy-in)

8,000 -2430 = ~5570
(minimum buy-in) - (current buy-in) = (necessary buy-in)

The 5,570 can be accounted for two ways.

Case 1:
Assuming a last minute surge of 4,000 leaves ~1,560 to be covered by a daily trickle.

1,560/3 = ~580
(trickle buy-in) / (weeks remaining until surge) = (needed weekly buy-in)

This number is not mathematically impossible. It is ~30 less than the previous weekly buy-in. However, the margin for victory is narrow.

The previous numbers include an early surge when the HasLab Unicron was first posted to Hasbro Pulse (about a month ago). Daily buy-in has consistently decreased over the past 4 weeks. And, even if weekly buy-in hovers around ~580, the last minute surge would need to be at least ~4,000 (twice the early surge).

Current number: ~2430
Needed last day surge: ~2410

The "surge" number has increased by a weekly average nearly as fast as the buy-in. However, the rate of that increase has grown consistently. (The increase of this past weekend is comparable to single day increases 2 weeks ago.) By the end of this weeks, the "surge" number's weekly increase will almost certainly be more than the weekly buy-in.


Case 2:

5560/3= ~1,853
(required buy-in to reach 8,000) / (weeks remaining) = (needed weekly buy-in)

Assuming that each remaining week results in an increase of even half of the 1,853, the weekly buy-in would still need to be over 900, ~50% more than the weekly buy-in of previous weeks. And, that would assume a last minute surge of over 2,700 on August 31 (the last day people can buy-in).


While neither of the above scenarios (or current methodology) make victory mathematically impossible, HasLab Unicron requires increasingly favorable (and improbable) results to be viable.

I am calling it now. HasLab Unicron will not happen.


------------
Monday, August 12

Current number: ~2430
Needed last day surge: ~2410
Prediction: Failure.
-------------------
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