crowd-funded "War for Cybertron" Unicron (2019 HasLab)

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September

Postby Dominic » Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:17 pm

As of Saturday, HasLab Unicron had ~5,600 buyers, which would have been a shortfall of ~2,400.

Well, my face is red. I predicted that HasLab Unicron would fail by ~1,000 (+/- 150). I was wrong by the entirety of my estimate, the upper margin of error...and some change.


Hasbro has extended the deadline by another 36 days. I could calculation and projections. But, this scenario is unprecedented.

There needs to be an average weekly increase of ~450.

However, Hasbro's stated reason for extending the deadline is that interested buyers need "more time" to come up with the money. I suspect that the buy-in spike (~2k) last week was the anticipated surge.

At this point, the only unrecorded demand is likely to be from people who needed more time. That real demand is likely to manifest in "micro-surges" on weekends (as people get paid). That has not happened this weekend.

However, this weekend was the last paycheck of September, overlapping with bill payments.

But, the next 2-3 weekends will be good indicators of Unicron's viability. If the buy-in does not exceed ~6,200 by 9/14, I am going predict a failure.
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September 5, 2019

Postby Dominic » Thu Sep 05, 2019 1:14 pm

Reposting the link:
https://hasbropulse.com/collections/has ... on-unicron


September 5 (Thursday):
The buy-in counter is just over 5,660. This is an average daily increase of ~12 (since Saturday).

Barring payday-related surges on weekends, HasLab Unicron is not going to happen.
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September 7

Postby Dominic » Sat Sep 07, 2019 10:37 am

September 7:

Current buy-in is ~5.660. That is an average of <10 per day in the week since the deadline has been extended.

I was expecting a weekend surge that would bring the total buy-in up to ~5,700.

I suspect that most of the demand for HasLab Unicron was established back in August. People who "need more time" may be planning to buy through an on-line seller. (Those number will not be counted until early October.) But, I am skeptical that nearly 2,500 people are going to buy through on-line sellers (given the increased cost).
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Re: crowd-funded "War for Cybertron" Unicron (2019 HasLab)

Postby JediTricks » Sun Sep 08, 2019 10:47 am

The counter is 5,659, which appears to be lower than it was yesterday.

Also, there was no boost from the Australian and Japanese market buyers on the 31st the way there was supposed to be, so either those numbers are being held back for the end of the campaign, or they were the 2k backers that the campaign got boosted by. In any case, this is looking very bad for the chances of this thing getting made, and if this thing fails it damns future campaigns' chances. I feel like the TF crew aimed $200 too high.
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Re: crowd-funded "War for Cybertron" Unicron (2019 HasLab)

Postby Dominic » Sun Sep 08, 2019 4:02 pm

I rounded up a little.

I suspect that the 2,000 buyers in late August were the last minute surge.

I tend to think that the Tamara numbers will be held back (and maybe increase). But, I am not sure that the middleman buyers and Tamara will be enough.


The problem is not only price, it is the figure. It has problems that were barely acceptable on cheaper regular toys over a decade ago. A $600 dollar toy needs to be better.
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Re: crowd-funded "War for Cybertron" Unicron (2019 HasLab)

Postby Shockwave » Mon Sep 09, 2019 9:40 am

They clearly prioritized the alt mode and the bot mode suffers for it. I understand if they want or need the panels but when you have that many panels on a figure I think you should be able to use some of them to lock together and hide the rest of the panels. It should not look as bad as it does from the back.
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September 12 (Thursday)

Postby Dominic » Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:58 am

I just checked the buy-in counter.

And, HasLab Unicron's buy-in has actually decreased since this weekend.

The exact number now (just before noon on 9/12) is 5,649.


On Sunday, the buy-in number was 5,660 (maybe 5,659).
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Re: crowd-funded "War for Cybertron" Unicron (2019 HasLab)

Postby Dominic » Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:18 am

Reposting the link:
https://hasbropulse.com/collections/has ... on-unicron



Two weeks, and at least one pay-cycle (assuming fortnightly paychecks) after the deadline was exteneded, the current buy-in number stands at 5,667, barely more than 70 higher than it was on the original deadline (August 31).

While it is likely that Hasbro received a number of (wholly sincere) requests for more time from interested buyers, it seems unlikely that time was the biggest problem. It seems that a fair amount of people lack the requisite money or inclination to order a HasLab Unicron.

After last week's fluctuations (when the buy-in actually *decreased*), I am going to try and use precise numbers.



Current number: (Monday, September 16)
5,667

Shortfall: (deadline +16 days)
2,333

Deadline: 20 days
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Re: crowd-funded "War for Cybertron" Unicron (2019 HasLab)

Postby Dominic » Wed Sep 18, 2019 11:25 am

I just checked the buy-in number.

It is just shy of 5,670.

After the deadline was extended for two weeks, buy-in is hovering only a little higher than it was on August 31.
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09202019

Postby Dominic » Fri Sep 20, 2019 11:18 am

HasLab Unicron buy-in: (Friday, September 20)
5,692

This is an increase of <100 since August 31.

Days remaining:16
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