by Dominic » Thu Aug 15, 2019 1:05 pm
Generally, there is a tipping point where the number of products manufactured becomes cheaper as the quantity increases. This is the same idea behind meal-prepping (making several days worth of food in one afternoon). There is an immediate cost in time/effort. But, that time is recouped/saved by less time spent preparing food, and cleaning the kitchen, later.
I am assuming that 8,000 is the minimum number that Hasbro can produce for this to be profitable.
Speaking of numbers....
Thursday, August 15
current number ~2,555.
This is an increase of <130 since Monday (when the number stood at ~2430). And, the shortfall of over 100 buyers per day (for 3 days) brings the last day "surge" number up to ~2,720.
This is more or less what I expected, with the needed surge number (~2,720) exceeding the current buy-in (2,555) by 150+. While I was not paying attention yesterday or Tuesday, the "surge" number would have exceeded the buy-in at some point in the last 72 hours.
I do not plan to use precise numbers until the last few days. But, a review of methodology is in order.
If we assume that the average daily buy-in needs to be 150+ buyers, the surge is the accumulated deficit (from each day that fewer than 150+ buyers are added). Generally speaking, the deficit has been 100+ buyers per day for the last 2 weeks.
Since early July, we have assumed that it is possible for a last minute surge to roughly double the buy-in, salvaging this project. (This is based on an overly optimistic assessment of last year's project. But, it is the best model we have.)
If the needed "surge" exceeds 4,000 (half of the needed buy-in of 8,000), then it becomes mathematically impossible for HasLab's Unicron to succeed.
The deadline for the HasLab Unicron project is August 31, just over a fortnight from now.
If we assume that the trends from the last 2 weeks remain more or less consistent, then the "surge" will increase ~twice as quickly as the buy in.
In 10 days (August 25), the buy-in will be ~3060, with the surge being ~3700.
3 days later (August 28), the buy-in will be ~3,400, and the surge will be ~4,000
Projected buy in (August 28)
buy-in: ~3,400
needed surge: ~4,000
On August 28th, HasLab Unicron will become mathematically impossible.
At this point, it is not a question of predicting that HasLab Unicron will fail, but predicting by how much.
2 days later (August 30),
buy-in: ~3,500
needed surge: ~4,200
August 31 ( optimistic projection):
buy-in: ~7000
short-fall: ~1,000
I am committing to a margin of error of +/- 150.
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current numbers (Thursday, August 15)
buy-in: ~2560
needed surge: ~2,720