crowd-funded "War for Cybertron" Unicron (2019 HasLab)

[Shockwave]

I can appreciate that level of detail in you analysis. You could very likely be correct, but here's the problem: Unicron isn't running for office. Applying political analysis to crowd funding for an expensive discretionary item isn't necessarily going to work as there's a LOT of different factors that go into each that are more than just numbers. Go ahead and call it if you like, but we have NO comparison for this at all. The closest one is the Sail Barge and even then there are significant differences (lower cost, lower number of buy ins, MUCH larger built in fan base). So we really don't have anything to compare this to at all. And again, I really find it hard to believe that Hasbro would put as much time and money into developing something that they're not going to produce, at least in some form. They're going to recover their investment in that one way or another. The worst case scenario for this would be that the number isn't reached, they really actually do cancel everything and then we never get any further crowdfunded TF projects again, nor would they even think about other figures like Primus. That would suck. It's possible, but I find it highly unlikely. At the end of the day, we're really just going to have to sit back and see what happens. Again, Hasbro sank a lot of time and money into this, they're not just going to scrap it.

[Dominic]

The idea of Unicron running for office amuses me. "Unicron will unite ancient enemies against a common foe by presenting a true existential threat to the universe itself."

You are right in saying that last year's "Star Wars" sail barge is a flawed model. But, the important thing to remember is that the flaws in the model likely make it overly optimistic. As you stated, it was a cheaper item that had more demand, and had a larger fanbase to draw from.

Saying that Hasbro would want to "recover an investment" misses the point of crowd-funding, specifically assessing how much demand for a product exists before starting production on any large scale. As of now, Hasbro has invested time/talent on designing a product that exists as a prototype. There are numerous examples within "Transformers" (to say nothing of action figures as a whole, let alone other consumer goods) of products that have made it to the prototype stage before being cancelled.

Any money that Hasbro loses by cancelling HasLab Unicron will be more than balanced by the money they avoid losing by producing a large/expensive product that they have proven there is no demand for.

The only thing that could possibly turn this around would be large scale buy-in from on-line retailers. And, I would imagine they are going to use buy-in numbers from individual buyers to gauge how much they are willing to invest. (Having one as a centerpiece for their inventory would have some cachet. But, there is a difference between a crowd-funded Unicron and Mile High Comics's having a copy of "Action Comics" #1.)


Re-posting the Hasbro Pulse link:
https://hasbropulse.com/collections/has ... on-unicron

[Shockwave]

I wonder how they decided the number of backers that they need? Were there more backers for the sail barge than were needed? And if so, I wonder if that's what gave them the basis for what would be needed for Unicron.

[Dominic]

Generally, there is a tipping point where the number of products manufactured becomes cheaper as the quantity increases. This is the same idea behind meal-prepping (making several days worth of food in one afternoon). There is an immediate cost in time/effort. But, that time is recouped/saved by less time spent preparing food, and cleaning the kitchen, later.

I am assuming that 8,000 is the minimum number that Hasbro can produce for this to be profitable.


Speaking of numbers....

Thursday, August 15
current number ~2,555.
This is an increase of <130 since Monday (when the number stood at ~2430). And, the shortfall of over 100 buyers per day (for 3 days) brings the last day "surge" number up to ~2,720.

This is more or less what I expected, with the needed surge number (~2,720) exceeding the current buy-in (2,555) by 150+. While I was not paying attention yesterday or Tuesday, the "surge" number would have exceeded the buy-in at some point in the last 72 hours.

I do not plan to use precise numbers until the last few days. But, a review of methodology is in order.

If we assume that the average daily buy-in needs to be 150+ buyers, the surge is the accumulated deficit (from each day that fewer than 150+ buyers are added). Generally speaking, the deficit has been 100+ buyers per day for the last 2 weeks.

Since early July, we have assumed that it is possible for a last minute surge to roughly double the buy-in, salvaging this project. (This is based on an overly optimistic assessment of last year's project. But, it is the best model we have.)

If the needed "surge" exceeds 4,000 (half of the needed buy-in of 8,000), then it becomes mathematically impossible for HasLab's Unicron to succeed.

The deadline for the HasLab Unicron project is August 31, just over a fortnight from now.

If we assume that the trends from the last 2 weeks remain more or less consistent, then the "surge" will increase ~twice as quickly as the buy in.

In 10 days (August 25), the buy-in will be ~3060, with the surge being ~3700.

3 days later (August 28), the buy-in will be ~3,400, and the surge will be ~4,000

Projected buy in (August 28)
buy-in: ~3,400
needed surge: ~4,000

On August 28th, HasLab Unicron will become mathematically impossible.

At this point, it is not a question of predicting that HasLab Unicron will fail, but predicting by how much.

2 days later (August 30),
buy-in: ~3,500
needed surge: ~4,200

August 31 ( optimistic projection):
buy-in: ~7000
short-fall: ~1,000

I am committing to a margin of error of +/- 150.

-----------------
current numbers (Thursday, August 15)
buy-in: ~2560
needed surge: ~2,720

[Shockwave]

BBTS is offering preorders for Unicron as well, with a deposit of 155.00. They also have a maximum order limit of 10. Not sure how this is affecting the project but I also note that they aren't posting it on their home page, I had to actually search for Unicron to find it. And I only found that because the owner of a local toy shop told me he'd heard about it.

[Shockwave]

Also, I wouldn't put it past Hasbro to use the Sail Barge as a model for Unicron. It wouldn't be that much of a stretch for them to have had ~8000 backers for that and then expect the same for Unicron. I don't know if that's how many it had but again, I would be surprised if they were using that as a basis for the number on Unicron. Ideally, it the required number should be just over enough to recover the initial investment, but again, I wouldn't put it past Hasbro to expect more.

[Dominic]

The current buy-in number is ~2,780, which is an increase of ~180 from the previously recorded 2560 (Thursday, August 15th). The shortfall for the previous 5 days is ~575, bringing the total needed surge (for August 31) up to ~3,290, and putting HasLab Unicron well on track to needing a last day surge of more than 4,000 (and thus being mathematically impossible) by the middle of next week.

BTS is offering preorders for Unicron as well, with a deposit of 155.00. They also have a maximum order limit of 10.

At this point, the only thing that is likely to turn this around is a surge in orders from stores like BBTS. (And, they are sensibly setting minimum order numbers.)

Is BBTS offering a payment plan? That might be enough to pry open a few more wallets.

Ideally, it the required number should be just over enough to recover the initial investment, but again, I wouldn't put it past Hasbro to expect more.

Hasbro likely used data from last years "Star Wars" barge project for this year's Unicron venture. But, unless one of us has access to Hasbro's in-house data, it will be hard to dissect their decision making process beyond common sense assumptions like "they want to make money".

I am willing to assume that 8,000 is the minimum production run that Hasbro needs to make this viable. I just doubt that the demand exists.


------------------
Current numbers (Tuesday, 8/20)
-buyers: ~2,782
-needed surge: ~3,290

[Dominic]

As of now (5pm est, August 25), there are 3,056 committed buyers for HasLab Unicron.

This is an increase of ~275 since last Tuesday. And, the needed surge for August 31 increases to ~3,800.

In order to reach 4,000 buyers (half of the required 8,000) by the end of the week, ~180 new buyers need to commit every day for the rest of the week. And, that (improbable) scenario still requires a last minute surge of an additional 4,000 buyers.

Friday is the last full day for people to order a Unicron. (Orders close at midnight EST Saturday, truncating the order-window for buyers west of the Mississippi.) If this ends up being close, the shortened day could become a factor.

---------
Current numbers (Sunday, August 25) :
-buyers: ~3,060
-needed surge: ~3,800
-projection: HalLab Unicron becomes mathematically impossible by Wednesday, possibly Tuesday.

[andersonh1]

How many people can really commit to a $500 dollar figure? But it wouldn't surprise me if they made it anyway.

[Sparky Prime]

It is interesting to note that about a month ago Unicron went up for pre-order on TakaraTomy's Mall site, listed as $75,600 Yen, which would be about $696.05 -- $121.06 more than Hasbro is asking for in the crowdfunding. The listing does say "Hasbro's crowdfunding “HAS Lab” project “Unicron” will be accepted at Takara Tomy Mall in Japan!", which makes me wonder if their numbers are reflected on the HasLab website's totals or not.